What Comes Next: Responsibility, Opportunity and the Future of Adventure Travel

Travel growth on steroids

When it comes to opportunity, here we can see IATA’s forecasts for air passenger demand (international & domestic), where volume growth is on steroids – expected to double in the next 25 years, from 5 billion to over 10 billion so that’s a huge opportunity for everyone working in travel.

However, travel bears a heavy carbon footprint, accounting for 9% of global emissions and 4 to 5 billion tons, requiring climate action to decarbonize, halve emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

From the global headlines, we see the impacts of excessive tourism where communities feel left behind, and are saying ‘enough already’.

Consu.mers are waking up, 85% in Booking.com’s recent survey said that travelling sustainably is important/very important to them.

Yesterday we heard that customers don’t care and there’s a considerable say-do gap as we know.

Where 43% intend to avoid over-visited destinations, looking for more off the beaten path/emerging secondary places to explore.

Coolcations are a real phenomenon - 25% of consumers this year are looking for coolcations, yet this is not a fad. The European Joint Research Centre points to a shift from southern European destinations to northern, with a 10% increase vs a 5% decrease over the next century.

With temperatures breaking new records this year, the speed of this transition might speed up.

84% of young people are leading the trend for emerging alternatives, looking for something less well trodden, off the beaten path – such as rural locations or secondary cities. We see this trend playing out with destination dupes where price not just climate are drivers of changing travel behaviours.

Travel businesses begin to unfollow the herd

Examples include travel buisneses that are capping destinations, or offering emerging alternatives, slower options, flight-free, purpose driven, off season – and these trends are playing out in terms of new business models, such as the UK’s Byway Travel that is purely flight free, even working with the likes of TUI.

The need to rebalance supply is critical when it comes to equity where here 80% of tourism spending in developing countries leaves destinations, like the Caribbean and other small island nations. This is criminal.

That’s why ever more destinations are turning to adventure travel – a trillion dollar industry - where 75% of spending is kept locally, thanks to using local guides and suppliers according to ATTA. But before we pat ourselves on the backs, this number has dropped from 79% last year, so there is no room for complacency. Companies like Much Better Adventures are pioneering AI for the purpose of equity

Another trailblazing company is Evaneos where 50% of their partners are women owned businesses, 85% stays with local suppliers and a resounding 92% for visitor satisfaction. Marion Philipps from Evaneos is here and has been enjoying all the activities, we had a great time forest bathing! Thank you to our Catalan hosts…

Meet my AI

Let’s now turn to the impact of AI and its power for creating new opportunities. We’re now in a new age of agentic AI, and according to Microsoft, 72% of consumers expect agentic AI experiences where AI conducts tasks autonomously on behalf of a person. This means that there will be further disintermediation coming down the pipeline as consumers get AI to book their holidays directly for them.

54% of travellers planned and booked travel with AI in 2025 so the transformation is taking place really quickly, with consumers looking at AI for creating itineraries according to Skyscanner. While Expedia says that technology is not the problem, trust is where only 8% of UK, US and Indian travellers book travel with ChatGPT/Gemini AI.

So despite the integration of brands like Expedia/Booking in Chat, there’s still a long way to go before AI is truly the one and only booking platform.

Yet where does this leave operators and intermediaries. Expedia sees it as an opportunity for trusted partners, so clearly believes in the future for intermediaries. With AI shaking up every aspect of consumers lives and business processes, without a doubt a new wave of AI first companies will be coming on stream…as Erik Blachford says, who would book a rafting tour with ChatGPT?

According to Jason Reckers of CoOwn, AI is like an adventure trip, it’s about taking one small step at a time.  

Is there a perfect visitor?

As look for balance, between growth and degrowth, equity and extraction, AI for good….there’s one headline that caught my attention – is there a perfect visitor/sustainable traveller?

With a potential 4 billion Gen Alpha/Beta by 2050, there is huge opportunity to tap into the children of Millennials who will be digital and AI first, highly experiential and looking for personalised, authentic experiences – especially tailored to their tastes, lifestyles and holistic wellbeing.

With more leisure time, and baby boomers living for longer, there will be ever more multi-generational trips as seen here with my family cycling thro’ the south of the Netherlands, aged 5 to 80.

There are plenty of adjacent industries to partner with, and one that stands out is wellness – potentially worth $10 trillion, where it’s about more than offering yoga in the mornings, it’s about the entire holistic wellbeing of individuals from the food and drinks they consumer to personalised itineraries, think personalised adventure for all

Achieving future balance

So when it comes to the future of adventure travel, it will continue to harness its purpose and passion, ever sharper focus on net positive impacts for communities and destinations. There are some major risks with over-tourism and AI, however, if we can harness the power of AI for doing good, then there’s a shared future that we can be responsible for.

Ultimately, it’s about creating transformative experiences for travellers steeped in adventure that deliver on the bottom line, give back to communities and empower the next generation of adventure travel businesses.

Closing Plenary speech presented at Adventure Elevate Catalonia 2026 for the Adventure Travel Trade Association (ATTA)