The Last Hurrah Economy

In my book Future-Proofing Travel I talk about the 'last hurrah' economy, where we all continue to enjoy travel, flying around the world on holiday or business, whilst being on borrowed time in terms of climate thresholds. That was the whole point of the SDG agenda — to change behaviours so that we don't trash the planet. However, the sustainable targets and transformation that governments signed up to at various COPs, the Paris Agreement and SDGs, now sadly look like empty promises.

IATA's long-term outlook points to air passenger demand doubling by 2050, and the forecasts from ICAO are even higher. IATA itself knows we're on a knife-edge — they admit the path to decarbonisation is falling short of targets, with SAF a mere 0.8% this year. Willie Walsh has even admitted that the targets for net zero by 2050 are 'fading fast' due to the lack of progress.

Setting aside the ethics of converting agricultural land to jet fuel where clearing land for SAF feedstock destroys the biodiversity and natural carbon sinks we desperately need, is a contradiction the industry has yet to grapple with.

Where does that leave us in our last hurrah economy? Well, business as usual it is.

Change the narrative, change the model

Earlier this week I talked about the need for reframing — including the language we use in the travel industry. From tourists to guests. Places to host destinations. Volume to value. This is a mantra we all know but here's another: how we talk about peak season. There is never a peak — it's always growing. My call is for high season, so that we begin to acknowledge we're still in growth mode. There has been talk of decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions, but we are far from that reality.

So let's talk about peak emissions and high season as part of changing the mindset, language and model.

And here's the uncomfortable truth beneath all of this: the destinations most dependent on tourism revenues — small island developing states, coastal communities, climate-vulnerable nations from the Caribbean to the Pacific — are the ones least responsible for the emissions driving their own destruction. They face the sharpest end of our last hurrah. When we talk about business as usual, we should name who pays for it.

Their voices shouldn’t only be heard at COP but all year round. Who's with me?