ITB Berlin: glimpse into the future of travel
ITB Berlin is the leading travel conference in the calendar and this year it celebrates 60 years. To mark this occasion, I was asked what 2086 may entail. I don’t have a crystal ball but there are some things that may stay the same, and definitely much that will change…
Q: What are the main factors that will shape travel and tourism in 2086 and beyond and what indications of this can we see in the industry today?
A: There will be multiple factors that will shape and transform travel and tourism over the next sixty years. The most important shifts will be driven by socio-demographics, technology, consumer trends and the climate emergency.
On the one hand, the travel industry will continue to enjoy robust growth, accelerated thanks to technological advances such as AI and the rising middle classes in emerging markets. Yet on the other hand, travel will face the eternal struggle in how to manage this growth in a responsible and fair way. The speed of sustainable transformation on the supply side will need to speed up to ensure that the right policies, business practices, infrastructure and sustainable energy supply meet future demand. Demand that is fuelled by the desire to travel, explore, self-actualise and ultimately experience joy.
If the travel industry continues on its current trajectory, there will potentially be tens of billions of air passengers and tens of billions of international arrivals travelling around the world, with their respective carbon footprint that needs to be addressed. Not forgetting domestic tourism which is even greater in magnitude.
If the industry fails to adapt and mitigate, the future for travel and tourism will be restricted majorly in certain parts of the world, facing elevated visitor levies, bans and heavy restrictions as communities reject excessive and harmful forms of tourism. This could lead to the closure of beautiful and fragile sites to the public, shifting access to the elite. Gated communities and visitor zones may become the norm rather than the exception.
As a vehicle of cultural exchange, it is vital that steps are taken in future to ensure that tourism remains open to all with low barriers to entry, whilst taking full responsibility for its social and environmental impacts.
Q: What do you expect future travel modes to look like, for example advances in autonomous vehicles, hyperloops, hydrogen-powered aircraft and commercial space travel?
A: The most notable change expected is for the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), a key lever in reducing carbon emissions. There will be a place for autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) in urban areas, where short commutes will increasingly be transferred to AEVs.
Urban air mobility (UAM) is also an area where substantial changes are likely to happen, with big leaps forward in UAM aircraft such as eVTOLs that are already being tested in key destinations. EVE Air Mobility in partnership with Embratur is an example of pushing the boundaries already in this sector.
Short distances intra-city will shift over to UAM. The future of urban air taxis will depend on having the necessary legislation and infrastructure in place to ensure safety is paramount where a proliferation of delivery drones will see congested skies.
To ensure that tens of billions of air passengers can continue to fly, where IATA predicts 10 billion by 2050, it is vital that the decarbonisation of aviation meets its official goals to reach net zero by 2050, aided by the ramping up of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Diversification to rail travel. which remains under-developed despite its low carbon footprint, is critical where countries such as India are ramping up investment in high-speed rail.
There will be a role for commercial space travel – as the investment will finally pay off for their billionaire founders - yet the environmental impact of travelling sub-orbital needs to be factored in. Space travel is not a panacea for long haul air travel, as is likely to remain out of reach of the average person and available to ultra-luxury travellers only.
The validity of hyperloops currently remains in question, but with investment and perseverance, they may become a viable alternative to short haul air travel in certain parts of the world such as the Middle East.
Flying cars are another area that could see traction, although not widescale – more like a novelty ‘Back to the Future’ experience.
Q: With the rise of AI, do you think we will reach a point where digital/virtual travel rivals physical travel and what would that mean for tourism? Which emerging technologies are most likely to have an impact on human exploration in the future?
A: In leisure travel tourism, the rise of virtual experiences will never replace real life travel and tourism, as seen by the dissipation of virtual reality after the pandemic. However, there is a rightful place for virtual experiences when travel is no longer an option, so when fragile sites need to close for their survival.
Already, certain countries at risk of disappearing due to climate change are shifting online such as the famous case of Tuvalu shifting into the metaverse.
Business travel is where the pressures on businesses to reduce their carbon emissions will see the biggest shift to virtual meetings, aided by advances in AI.
By far the biggest impact on human exploration will be AI. We are just at the beginning of how AI and all its forms will influence and shape how we travel. We have seen huge leaps forward in the past few years with Generative AI and now Agentic AI, it is hard to predict the full impact of these developments. Without doubt, AI will have significant repercussions on how travel and tourism is searched for, booked and experienced, as we can already see. The biggest risk in the mid term is disintermediation, where potentially if anyone can build their own travel products, why go to an OTA or travel agent? This could be empowering for travellers but a nightmare for destinations.
In 60 years, who knows, there could be singular AI, and the need for strong safeguards will be more acute to ensure that AI does not impact negatively local communities or put travellers at risk of malpractice. AI’s energy footprint should also be considered so that its use can be optimised whilst minimising environmental damage.
One thing for certain is that the future will not be dull. Look out for part 2 where I take a look at climate change impacts.